Published: 26 November 2025,06:07
Daily Market Analysis New
*Strong Broad Market Rally: Dow Jones led gains (+1.4%) with small-caps (Russell 2000) outperforming (+2%), reflecting optimism around potential December Fed rate cuts.
*Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Sentiment: Rising conviction of imminent monetary easing boosted “easy money” sectors and rate-sensitive stocks.
*Mixed Sector Performance: Retail earnings (Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch) exceeded expectations, supporting equities despite soft retail sales; tech gains were capped as Nvidia and AMD fell amid Meta-TPU AI chip news.
Market Summary:
U.S. equities rallied sharply on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading gains, climbing over 1.4%, as markets recalibrated expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Investor optimism is centered on the growing conviction that the Fed will cut interest rates in December, reviving the “easy money” beta trade and providing a tailwind to rate-sensitive sectors. Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, outperformed with a gain of over 2%, reflecting the heightened benefit of lower borrowing costs for smaller companies.
The advance was further supported by a wave of positive retail earnings, including strong results from Kohl’s and Abercrombie & Fitch, which alleviated some concerns about U.S. consumer health despite softer-than-expected retail sales data. However, the rally was not uniform. Technology sector gains were capped by reports that Meta is in talks to purchase AI chips from Alphabet’s TPU division, which triggered a sell-off in Nvidia and AMD. This development challenges the narrative of unassailable GPU dominance, introducing a potential redistribution of value within the AI ecosystem and signaling a more competitive phase in tech hardware supply.
Fundamentally, the outlook for equities has brightened considerably on expectations of imminent monetary easing. The market is now navigating a transitional phase from a tech-led rally toward a broader-based advance while factoring in both the opportunities presented by rate cuts and the potential implications of structural changes in key technology sectors. Investors remain attentive to upcoming U.S. economic releases, corporate earnings, and Fed commentary, all of which will influence whether the current bullish momentum can be sustained.
Technical Analysis
Dow Jones, H4:
Dow Jones is showing renewed strength on the timeframe after rebounding cleanly from the rising trendline, with price now pressing back above the 47,000 region. The recovery has been orderly, and the index is attempting to reclaim the broken trend structure but the move is now approaching a critical zone where upward momentum has repeatedly stalled.
Price is testing the underside of the trendline it recently lost, sitting just beneath the 47,150–47,300 resistance band. This area overlaps with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and has acted as a turning point during prior swings, making it a meaningful barrier. Unless buyers show stronger continuation, the Dow may face hesitation or consolidation as it pushes into this cluster.
RSI has bounced to around the mid-50s, signaling improving bullish momentum after the recent dip, though it remains far from overbought. The indicator shows a steady recovery, but no extreme strength yet. MACD is printing rising green histogram bars with the MACD line crossing above the signal line confirming bullish momentum is building but the slope is still moderate, suggesting the rebound is developing rather than fully accelerating.
Resistance level: 48,010.00, 49,090.00
Support level: 46,420.00, 44,325.00
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