Published: 25 November 2025,05:43
Daily Market Analysis New
*USD/JPY remains pinned near multi-month highs, consolidating around 156.80–157.00 and edging toward the 158–160 intervention zone as wide U.S.–Japan yield spreads and fiscal concerns continue to weigh on the Yen.
*Intervention risks are rising, with advisor Takuji Aida signaling Japan is prepared to “actively intervene,” and the Takaichi administration seen as more assertive on currency stability.
*BoJ Core CPI on Wednesday is the next key catalyst, where a reading above 2% could support expectations for policy normalization.
The Japanese Yen remains under sustained pressure, with USD/JPY consolidating in the 156.80-157.00 range—positioning the pair near multi-month highs and within striking distance of the psychologically critical 158-160 zone where historical intervention has occurred. The currency’s weakness continues to reflect fundamental divergences: substantial U.S.-Japan yield differentials persist despite growing Fed cut expectations, while Japan’s fiscal concerns and seasonal liquidity thinning have exacerbated the move.
Authorities have intensified verbal intervention, with government advisor Takuji Aida explicitly affirming Japan’s readiness to “actively intervene” to counter weak-Yen impacts—particularly imported inflation. The Takaichi administration is perceived as more assertive on currency matters than previous governments, suggesting intervention probability rises significantly as USD/JPY approaches 160.
Wednesday’s BoJ Core CPI release represents the next potential catalyst for JPY direction. A reading firmly above the 2% threshold could reinforce expectations for eventual BoJ policy normalization, providing fundamental support for the beleaguered currency. However, without concrete intervention or a hawkish BoJ policy shift, the Yen’s near-term trajectory remains vulnerable to further depreciation, with markets closely monitoring both technical levels and official rhetoric for signals of impending action.
The USDJPY pair is exhibiting early technical signals of potential trend reversal after trading near its 2025 peak. While the pair successfully defended the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 156.30 during a recent correction, it subsequently faced firm rejection at the short-term pivotal resistance of 157.15. This price action suggests bullish momentum is waning and the pair may be entering a consolidation or corrective phase.
The 156.30 Fibonacci level now represents a critical technical threshold. A decisive break below this support would signal a more substantial bearish reversal, potentially triggering a deeper correction toward the 155.00 psychological level. The market structure indicates that while the broader uptrend remains technically intact, near-term momentum has clearly deteriorated.
Momentum indicators corroborate this assessment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought territory to the mid-line, indicating diminishing buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has completed a bearish death cross and is trending toward its zero line. This configuration suggests the bullish momentum that propelled the pair to yearly highs is indeed dissipating. Traders should monitor the 156.30 level closely, as a breach would confirm the reversal pattern and likely accelerate selling pressure.
Resistance Levels: 157.95, 161.70
Support Levels: 154.00, 150.80
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