Published: 25 November 2025,05:45
Daily Market Analysis New
*Tech-Led Rebound: Nasdaq surged 2.7%, driven by AI-adjacent stocks and the “Magnificent Seven,” as investor sentiment shifted from AI bubble fears to optimism around a potential year-end Fed-driven “melt-up.”
*Fed Influence: Dovish signals from Fed officials on a cooling labor market sharply increased December rate-cut odds, easing concerns over tighter financial conditions and supporting equities.
*Data-Dependent Rally: Despite strong gains, the market remains fragile; upcoming retail sales and core PCE releases are key tests for the soft-landing narrative.
Market Summary:
Wall Street staged a powerful, tech-led rebound over the past 48 hours, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2.7% as investor focus shifted from fears of an AI bubble to optimism around a potential year-end Fed-driven “melt-up.” The dramatic pivot in sentiment was triggered by dovish signals from Fed officials, who emphasized a cooling labor market over persistent inflation, sending December rate-cut odds sharply higher. This shift eased concerns that tighter financial conditions could derail equity markets, fueling gains in the “Magnificent Seven” and AI-adjacent names such as Alphabet, Broadcom, and Micron, which had been hardest hit in the recent sell-off.
The rally has injected renewed confidence ahead of the critical holiday shopping season, with the National Retail Federation forecasting sales to top $1 trillion for the first time. Equity gains were broad but remain fragile, with investors mindful that underlying fundamentals are still data-dependent. Upcoming economic releases, including retail sales and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, will serve as key litmus tests: stronger-than-expected consumer activity would reinforce the soft-landing narrative and support further upside, while disappointing prints could rekindle growth fears and cap equity gains.
Market participants are also weighing broader macro and geopolitical factors. The tentative easing of U.S.–China tensions and progress in Ukraine peace talks have bolstered risk appetite, supporting equity flows, while still keeping safe-haven demand in check. Despite recent gains, elevated tech valuations and sensitivity to Fed policy underscore that the rally, though encouraging, is contingent on continued dovish momentum and supportive data.
In the near term, Wall Street is likely to trade within a cautiously optimistic range, driven by Fed policy expectations, consumer data, and corporate earnings, with tech and AI sectors continuing to lead performance but remaining sensitive to macro surprises and shifts in risk sentiment.
Technical Analysis
Nasdaq, H4:
NASDAQ on the chart is still trading under a bearish backdrop despite the latest rebound. The break below the rising trendline that supported the previous multi-month uptrend remains the defining technical shift, and price continues to trade beneath both that broken trendline and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. This keeps the broader structure in a corrective phase, with lower highs still developing and signaling that sellers retain the upper hand.
Price is now pushing back toward the underside of the broken trendline, but this area acts as firm dynamic resistance. Unless the index can recover and hold above this level with conviction, any upside is likely to remain limited.
RSI has recovered from earlier lows and is now sitting around the 50 level, showing that momentum is improving but not yet shifting decisively in favor of the bulls. MACD is forming a golden crossover, hinting at an early attempt at bullish traction, though both lines remain close to the neutral axis and need further follow-through to signal a stronger reversal. Until price can reclaim the broken trendline and sustain above it, the broader tone stays cautious, with risk skewed toward a continuation of the corrective move.
Resistance level: 25,630.00, 27,900.00
Support level: 23,845.00, 22,440.00
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