Published: 24 November 2025,06:07
Daily Market Analysis NewUncategorized
Key Takeaways:
*GBP/USD is pinned near 1.3000, pressured by one of the most challenging macro weeks for Sterling as it trades around six-month lows.
*A high-stakes domestic data trifecta looms, with Tuesday’s CPI, Wednesday’s Autumn Budget, and Thursday’s GDP set to determine the Pound’s trajectory.
*Broader U.S. dollar strength amplifies downside risk, leaving the Pound highly vulnerable to negative surprises from any of this week’s key events.
Market Summary:
The Pound Sterling remains under significant pressure, trading near six-month lows against the U.S. dollar with GBP/USD hovering around the psychologically critical 1.3000 level. The currency faces one of its most challenging periods in recent memory as three key events converge this week, creating a perfect storm of fundamental headwinds.
The primary focus remains Wednesday’s Autumn Budget, where markets anticipate Chancellor Rachel Reeves may introduce tax increases to address fiscal constraints. Such measures would likely further dampen economic growth prospects, exacerbating concerns that the UK is entering a stagflationary environment—characterized by persistently high inflation alongside stagnant economic output.
The budget anticipation will be preceded by Tuesday’s CPI release, which is forecast to show a marginal increase from previous readings. This inflation data will be immediately contrasted with Thursday’s GDP figures, providing a crucial snapshot of the UK’s stagflationary risks. A combination of rising inflation and weak growth would fundamentally undermine the Pound’s structural support.
These domestic concerns are compounded by broad U.S. dollar strength, creating a particularly challenging environment for Sterling. The currency’s trajectory will be determined by this week’s trifecta of events: any deviation from expected tax measures in the budget, surprising inflation prints, or GDP contractions could trigger substantial volatility. Current market positioning suggests continued vulnerability, with risks skewed toward further depreciation unless these events deliver positive surprises that alleviate stagflation concerns.
Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair continues to trade in proximity to significant technical support at the 1.3000 level, representing its lowest valuation in six months. The pair’s technical structure remains bearish, characterized by a persistent pattern of lower highs that has defined its recent downtrend.
While the pair has initiated a modest technical rebound from oversold conditions, this recovery is expected to encounter substantial resistance near the 1.3140 zone—a level that aligns with recent swing highs and likely represents the upper boundary of the current downward channel.
Momentum indicators present a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued below the 50 midline, confirming that bearish momentum persists, though its moderation suggests selling pressure may be easing. Notably, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is displaying early signs of potential stabilization, forming a higher low that could indicate diminishing downward momentum.
Resistance Levels: 1.3160, 1.3290
Support Levels: 1.3000, 1.2865
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