Bitcoin Slides Below $100K as Hawkish Fed Shift Triggers Broad Risk-Off Move

Key Takeaways:

*Bitcoin breaks below $100,000 as macro uncertainty and a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations pressure risk sentiment.

*December rate-cut odds drop from 80%+ to ~50%, reinforcing a risk-off shift amid delayed U.S. inflation data caused by the government shutdown.

*U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs record over $1.2B in outflows, removing a major source of liquidity and deepening downside momentum.

Market Summary:

Bitcoin extended its slide overnight, breaking firmly below the $100,000 threshold as macro uncertainty and internal deleveraging continue to sap market confidence. The move reflects a broader pullback in risk assets driven by a sharp hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve expectations, with December rate-cut odds falling from above 80% last week to near 50% today. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has deepened the uncertainty by delaying key indicators such as October CPI, leaving traders without crucial inflation signals and reinforcing a risk-off stance.

Internal market dynamics have amplified the downturn. Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 815,000 BTC over the past month, the largest profit-taking wave since early 2024. At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, once a major pillar of institutional demand, have shifted into persistent outflows, losing more than $1.2 billion in early November alone. This erosion of bid-side liquidity has made the market more vulnerable to abrupt price swings.

The sell-off accelerated through derivatives markets, with $500–640 million in leveraged positions liquidated within a single day, the majority being long bets. This cascade has pulled Bitcoin toward the $98,000 zone, which now serves as the next key support area. A failure to stabilize here risks exposing deeper downside targets, including the widely watched $94,000 production-cost level.

Still, the longer-term adoption narrative continues to evolve. The Czech National Bank’s creation of a $1 million digital-asset test portfolio and Luxembourg’s decision to allocate a portion of sovereign wealth into Bitcoin highlight growing institutional curiosity rather than retreat. Meanwhile, ecosystem data reinforces a key structural divide: Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a store-of-value asset, while Ethereum’s utility-driven model supported by staking and DeFi continues to mature.

In the near term, cryptocurrencies are likely to remain pressured by shifting Fed expectations, thin liquidity, and elevated volatility. A reversal of ETF outflows and clearer U.S. macro data will be crucial to restoring stability and re-anchoring bullish momentum.

Technical Analysis

BTC, H4:

Bitcoin continues to trade under clear downside pressure on the chart, with the latest candle breaking below the 100,000 support zone, a level that previously held multiple rebounds throughout late October and early November. This breakdown signals weakening bullish momentum and opens the door for a deeper correction toward the next major support around 96,000. 

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. The RSI sits near 43 and is showing a downward slope, suggesting sellers are regaining control but without reaching oversold conditions yet, leaving room for continued downside. The MACD histogram has shifted firmly negative, and the MACD lines are crossing lower, indicating increasing bearish momentum and a lack of strong buying interest during recent pullbacks.

Overall, Bitcoin currently holds a bearish short-term structure, with downside targets active as long as it remains below 100,000. Bulls will need to defend 99,500 to prevent momentum from accelerating into a deeper correction.

Resistance Levels: 106,235.00, 110,950.00
Support Levels: 100,000.00, 96,000.00