Published:11 November 2025,03:41
Daily Market Analysis New
*GBP/USD finds support near 1.3180 after testing 10-week lows around 1.3000, with the recovery reflecting temporary relief from fiscal jitters ahead of the Autumn Budget.
*UK employment and wage growth figures due today are expected to shape near-term BoE policy expectations and Sterling direction.
*Softer labor data could trigger dovish repricing and renewed downside pressure, while resilient wage growth would bolster the higher-for-longer narrative and support the Pound’s rebound.
Market Summary:
The GBP/USD pair has found tentative support around the 1.3160 level, staging a modest recovery after recently testing 10-week lows near the psychologically significant 1.3010 mark. The Pound’s earlier weakness was largely driven by mounting concerns over the UK’s fiscal health, with markets anticipating potential tax hikes in the upcoming Autumn Budget that could dampen economic growth prospects.
The currency’s recent stabilization suggests it may be temporarily shrugging off these fiscal concerns, though the Budget announcement remains a substantial near-term risk that could limit significant appreciation.
Today’s UK employment report represents a critical pivot point for Sterling direction. The simultaneous release of the unemployment rate and wage growth data will significantly influence Bank of England (BoE) policy expectations. While the market currently anticipates the BoE will maintain its restrictive stance given persistently high inflation, a disappointing jobs report—particularly if accompanied by moderating pay growth—could prompt markets to price in a more dovish policy path. Such a shift would likely renew selling pressure on the Pound, potentially challenging the recent stability around current support levels. Conversely, robust wage data would reinforce the higher-for-longer rates narrative, providing fundamental support for a more sustained recovery.
Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair has executed a significant technical breakout, penetrating the key liquidity zone and resistance at the 1.3160 level following a strong rebound from recent lows. This decisive move suggests a potential bullish trend reversal is underway, marking a notable shift in near-term market structure.
The breakout above 1.3160 is particularly significant as it represents a clear victory for bulls after a prolonged period of selling pressure. This level now transitions from resistance to potential support, establishing a new technical foundation for further upward movement.
Momentum indicators strongly corroborate the bullish structural shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not only rebounded from oversold territory but has now climbed decisively above the 50 mid-line, indicating building bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has completed a bullish crossover above its zero line and continues to trend higher. This alignment across both price action and momentum oscillators suggests the bearish momentum has been effectively broken, supporting the case for further near-term appreciation with the next resistance level projected near the 1.3250 handle.
Resistance Levels:1.3290, 1.3420
Support Levels: 1.3000, 1.2870
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