Triple Central Bank Week: Fed, ECB, and BoJ in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of October 27, 2025

Weekly Market Preview
The final stretch of October is stacked with high-impact events that could redefine the macro landscape heading into year-end. The spotlight falls squarely on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan, each at very different stages of the policy cycle. The Fed is expected to hold at 4.25%, but Chair Powell’s tone will determine whether rate-cut expectations for early 2026 gain traction. The ECB faces a similar dilemma balancing weak growth with lingering price pressures while the BoJ’s next steps on yield curve control could jolt yen markets.

Beyond the central bank cluster, the week also features U.S. Q3 GDP, Core PCE, Eurozone CPI, and China’s manufacturing PMI, offering a cross-market test of how resilient global activity remains amid tightening financial conditions. With market liquidity thinning and volatility creeping higher, the interplay between growth data and policy guidance could trigger outsized reactions across FX pairs, bonds, and gold.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, October 27 – 15:30

US Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Sep)

Previous: -2.7% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Durable goods orders are a leading gauge of U.S. industrial momentum. After a sharp contraction in August, investors will look for stabilization to confirm manufacturing is bottoming out. A rebound would support risk sentiment and lift the dollar, while continued weakness would reinforce slowdown concerns ahead of GDP data later in the week.

Tuesday, October 28 – 17:00

US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)

Previous: 94.2 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Consumer confidence will shed light on household sentiment amid elevated prices and high borrowing costs. A steady or higher reading could signal resilience in consumer spending, tempering Fed-dovish bets. A decline would stoke demand concerns and weigh on U.S. yields and the greenback.

Wednesday, October 29 – 18:45

BoC Interest Rate Decision (Oct)

Previous: 2.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain rates, but its tone on inflation and growth will guide CAD direction. Hawkish remarks could boost the loonie, especially if oil prices stay firm. A dovish tilt would reinforce policy divergence with the Fed, weakening CAD against USD and EUR.

Wednesday, October 29 – 21:00

Fed Interest Rate Decision (Oct)

Previous: 4.25% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Fed is widely expected to hold steady, but Powell’s post-meeting remarks will be pivotal. If he hints that inflation progress justifies future easing, risk assets could rally and yields fall. A cautious or hawkish tone emphasizing sticky core inflation would revive dollar strength and pressure equities.

Wednesday, October 29 – 21:30

FOMC Press Conference

Markets will closely parse Powell’s language on growth and policy trajectory. Any acknowledgment of softer activity could validate dovish market pricing, while emphasis on upside inflation risks would cap risk appetite. Expect heightened volatility in USD/JPY and gold during the session.

Thursday, October 30 – 08:00

BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Oct)

Previous: 0.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

After months of speculation, the BoJ could signal subtle adjustments to its yield curve control stance. A hawkish shift or hints of exit could trigger yen appreciation and global bond repricing. Conversely, policy inertia would weaken JPY and reinforce the carry trade narrative.

Thursday, October 30 – 12:00

German GDP (QoQ, Q3)

Previous: -0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Germany’s economy has been stagnating under manufacturing and export headwinds. A better-than-expected print would alleviate eurozone recession fears, while another contraction would bolster expectations of ECB easing, likely pressuring the euro.

Thursday, October 30 – 15:30

US GDP (QoQ, Q3)

Previous: 3.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Third-quarter GDP is set to confirm whether U.S. growth remains robust amid tight financial conditions. Strong data could push back against Fed cut expectations and support USD strength. A miss would validate soft-landing skepticism, encouraging a bond rally and weighing on risk sentiment.

Thursday, October 30 – 16:00

German CPI (MoM, Oct)

Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Inflation in Europe’s largest economy remains sticky, driven by services and food. A stronger print would challenge the ECB’s dovish tone, bolstering the euro. A softer reading would reinforce disinflation momentum, supporting bond markets and risk assets.

Thursday, October 30 – 16:15

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)

Deposit Rate Previous: 2.00% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The ECB is expected to hold, but the focus will be on forward guidance. Lagarde’s tone will determine if policy easing is imminent. A hawkish surprise could lift EUR/USD briefly, while dovish hints would send yields lower and weigh on the currency.

Friday, October 31 – 04:30

China Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Previous: 49.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

China’s factory gauge will be watched for confirmation of stabilization. A move back above 50 would signal improving industrial momentum, supporting Asian equities and commodities. Continued contraction would pressure risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies.

Friday, October 31 – 13:00

Eurozone CPI (YoY, Oct)

Previous: 2.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Eurozone inflation is expected to moderate but remain above target. A hotter print would complicate ECB easing expectations, boosting EUR. A downside surprise could accelerate rate-cut bets, especially if German CPI softens earlier in the week.

Friday, October 31 – 15:30

US Core PCE Price Index (YoY, Sep)

Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will anchor the week. Any downside surprise would confirm cooling price pressures, reinforcing dovish sentiment. A sticky or stronger print could undo the post-FOMC relief rally, reviving bets for “higher for longer” policy.

Friday, October 31 – 16:45

US Chicago PMI (Oct)

Previous: 47.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Regional manufacturing momentum will offer the final pulse check of the month. A rebound above 50 would signal renewed activity strength, while persistent contraction reinforces the soft-landing narrative and could weigh on the dollar.