2 October 2025,05:58
Daily Market Analysis
2 October 2025, 05:58
*Bitcoin broke above $119,000 and Ethereum neared $4,400, lifting total crypto market cap back above $4T to a four-week high.
*The U.S. government shutdown underscored crypto’s decentralized resilience, while weak ADP jobs data boosted Fed rate-cut expectations.
*Technical breakouts reinforce bullish sentiment, though upcoming U.S. data and Fed signals could inject fresh volatility.
The cryptocurrency market extended its bullish trajectory during the previous session, with Bitcoin surpassing $119,000 for the first time in a month and Ethereum approaching a weekly peak near $4,400. The sector’s total market capitalization reclaimed the $4 trillion threshold, reaching its highest level in four weeks and signaling a robust recovery from the recent corrective phase.
The rally appears to be fueled by two concurrent catalysts: structural and monetary. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has highlighted cryptocurrency’s operational resilience as a decentralized asset class, attracting capital seeking alternatives to traditional systems dependent on federal functionality. Simultaneously, yesterday’s unexpectedly weak ADP employment report—which showed a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs—has substantially increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts at this month’s FOMC meeting.
Market-implied probabilities now suggest near-certainty of Fed easing in October, creating a favorable liquidity environment for speculative assets. The combination of political dysfunction in traditional governance and anticipatory monetary easing has created a potent bullish mix for digital assets, reinforcing their appeal as both a tactical and thematic investment.
Technical indicators suggest the recovery has further room to run, with both major cryptocurrencies breaking key resistance levels amid strengthening momentum. The ability to sustain gains above these technical thresholds will be crucial for maintaining the positive near-term bias. However, traders should remain alert to potential volatility around upcoming economic data and Fed communications, which could either extend or temper the current risk-on impulse.
Ethereum has advanced approximately 6% from a crucial liquidity zone, approaching the next significant technical barrier near the $4,500 level. The cryptocurrency has decisively broken above the long-term downtrend resistance at $4,277, confirming a structural shift in market sentiment and reinforcing the bullish near-term bias.
The breach of this key resistance level represents a significant technical development, suggesting that the previous corrective phase has likely concluded. However, the $4,500 zone presents the next substantial challenge—a confluence of previous support-turned-resistance and a psychologically important threshold where profit-taking activity may emerge.
Momentum indicators remain strongly supportive of further gains. The Relative Strength Index has entered overbought territory, reflecting intense buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has crossed decisively above its zero line and continues to trend higher. This configuration suggests that bullish momentum is not only established but accelerating.
Resistance Levels: 4510.00, 4820.00
Support Levels: 4277.00, 4070.40
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