1 October 2025,03:49
Daily Market Analysis
1 October 2025, 03:49
*S&P 500 gained 0.41%, led by healthcare as Pfizer rose over 2% after avoiding drug-specific tariffs.
*Congressional gridlock ahead of the September 30 deadline keeps sentiment fragile, with futures lower in Asian trading.
*Gold surged above $3,800 as trade policy threats and political uncertainty cloud Fed outlook, raising correction risks for equities.
Market Summary:
U.S. equities managed modest gains in the previous session despite mounting concerns over a potential government shutdown, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.41% as seven of its eleven sectors closed positive. The healthcare sector outperformed after Pfizer secured an agreement with the Trump administration to avoid pharmaceutical-specific tariffs, sending its shares up more than 2%.
However, market sentiment remains fragile as Congressional Republicans have yet to reach a consensus on a spending bill ahead of the September 30 deadline, when federal funding is set to expire. The impasse has cast a shadow over risk assets, with U.S. equity futures trading lower during Asian hours as investors brace for potential market disruption.
Adding to the uncertainty, former President Trump has threatened new tariffs targeting heavy-duty trucks, pharmaceuticals, timber, and furniture—a move that complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Policymakers may hesitate to proceed with additional rate cuts amid concerns that renewed trade tensions could reignite inflationary pressures which harm the sentiment in the equity market.
The cautious tone has fueled safe-haven flows, with gold surging to a fresh all-time high above $3,800. While Wall Street has demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, the combination of political brinkmanship and trade policy uncertainty is expected to trigger a technical correction if a shutdown materializes.
Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is testing a critical technical juncture after its recent rally stalled near the all-time high zone below the 6,700 level. The index had previously broken above its downtrend channel resistance near 6,615 and advanced approximately 1%, but has since encountered significant selling pressure as it approaches record territory.
The current price action around the 6,660 level represents a key inflection point. This zone has developed as a significant liquidity area, and the index’s ability to maintain support here will be crucial for determining its near-term direction. A sustained hold above this level would suggest the bullish structure remains intact, while a breakdown would indicate a potential reversal of the recent uptrend.
Momentum indicators are showing early signs of deterioration. While the Relative Strength Index remains above its midline, indicating some residual bullish momentum, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is flirting with its zero line and showing signs of rolling over. A confirmed break below the zero line would provide technical confirmation of weakening momentum and potentially signal a more significant correction.
Resistance Levels: 6701.00, 6737.60
Support Levels: 6636.00, 6588.90
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