26 September 2025,03:39
Daily Market Analysis
26 September 2025, 03:39
*Oil steadies after rally: Brent at $69.42, WTI near $65, as bullish and bearish forces offset.
*Geopolitical support: Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Moscow’s diesel export ban tightened fuel markets; Trump pressing Turkey to cut Russian oil imports.
*Bearish headwinds: Strong U.S. GDP lowers Fed cut hopes, stronger dollar pressures oil. Iraq-KRG deal may restore up to 500k bpd via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, fueling oversupply fears.
Market Summary:
Oil benchmarks steadied after hitting seven-week highs, as the market weighed conflicting supply risks and macroeconomic headwinds. Brent crude settled at $69.42 a barrel, while WTI hovered near $65, reflecting an uneasy balance between bullish geopolitical disruptions and looming bearish fundamentals.
Recent gains were driven by escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries prompted Moscow to impose a partial ban on diesel exports until year-end, tightening global fuel markets and lifting European refining margins. Adding to the pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Turkey to halt Russian oil purchases, signaling the prospect of stricter sanctions tied to European compliance.
Yet, bearish forces remain in play. Stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP data at 3.8% reduced expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar and weighing on oil. More significantly, Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government agreed to restart flows through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, potentially restoring up to 500,000 barrels per day to global supply. Analysts warn this could add to oversupply concerns, particularly as the IEA flags risks of a glut emerging by 2026.
The near-term outlook points to volatility within a defined range. Prices will be driven by the pace of Kurdish supply resumption, the durability of Russian export curbs, and the effectiveness of Trump’s energy diplomacy. Traders remain alert to signs of Turkish compliance on Russian crude, as well as any retaliatory moves from Moscow that could further unsettle global energy flows.
Technical Analysis
USOIL, H4:
USOIL has staged a strong rebound, reclaiming ground above the $65.00 mark and pushing toward the next resistance at $66.65. This recovery comes after a period of sideways consolidation, with buyers regaining control and attempting to reestablish upward momentum. The ability to hold above the $63.20 support level will now be key in sustaining this bullish move, while a decisive break above $66.65 would open the path toward $68.55 and potentially $70.30.
The broader structure reflects a market attempting to transition from consolidation into a renewed uptrend. Price action is supported by improving momentum, with the RSI climbing above 67, indicating firm buying strength, though nearing overbought territory. The MACD has crossed into positive territory, with signal lines trending higher and the histogram printing green, reinforcing the bullish bias.
Unless sellers force a rejection below $63.20, the near-term outlook favors further upside, with dips likely to attract buyers as the market builds a stronger base above recent lows.
Resistance level: 66.65, 68.55
Support level: 64.90, 63.20
Step into the world of trading with confidence today. Open a free PU Prime live CFD trading account now to experience real-time market action, or refine your strategies risk-free with our demo account.
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments.
This material has been prepared without considering any individual investment objectives, financial situations. Any references to past performance of a financial instrument, index, or investment product are not indicative of future results.
PU Prime makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this content and accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Trading involves risk, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
