26 September 2025,03:35
Daily Market Analysis
26 September 2025, 03:35
*U.S. GDP surged to 3.8%, beating forecasts of 3.3%.
*Durable Goods Orders rebounded sharply to 2.9% vs. expectations of -0.3%.
*Treasury yields rose across the curve, complicating Fed rate-cut bets.
*Dollar Index remains in overbought territory, facing key resistance at 98.75.
Global markets witnessed renewed volatility as a string of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data reignited hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve and pushed Treasury yields higher.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders climbed 2.9% in the latest reading, a sharp rebound from -2.7% previously and well above consensus of -0.3%. Meanwhile, GDP growth accelerated to 3.8%, compared with the prior -0.5% and topping the 3.3% forecast. Labor market conditions also outperformed expectations, with Initial Jobless Claims coming in at 218K versus 233K projected.
This run of robust data has clouded the policy outlook. While markets continue to price in at least two Fed rate cuts in the year’s remaining meetings, comments from Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have stressed a cautious, data-dependent approach. Powell reiterated that the Fed must “wait and see” before committing to a dovish pivot.
In the bond market, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose 2.5 basis points to 4.172%, while the more policy-sensitive 2-year yield climbed 6.3 basis points to 3.661%.
Attention now turns to the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due later today. Any upside surprise could further dampen prospects for aggressive easing.
Technical Analysis
The Dollar Index (DXY) extended gains after breaking above the key resistance of 98.10. If bullish momentum persists, the index could retest resistance at 98.75, with a further extension toward 99.60.
However, momentum indicators suggest caution. The MACD is showing fading bullish pressure, as reflected in a diminishing histogram, while the RSI stands at 76, signaling overbought conditions.
Should the bullish momentum fail to hold, the index may retrace toward the support level of 98.10, with a potential consolidation phase around 97.55.
Resistance levels: 98.75, 99.60
Support levels: 98.10, 97.55
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