15 September 2025,06:44
Daily Market Analysis
15 September 2025, 06:44
*Geopolitics injects short-term risk premium (Ukraine drone strikes, Russia supply curbs).
*Long-term surplus remains intact: OPEC+ supply, record U.S. output, sluggish demand.
*Producers cutting jobs/capex signal stress, but the market remains biased to fade rallies.
Oil markets remain whipsawed, with Brent crude hovering near $67 as traders juggle immediate supply disruptions against a backdrop of structural oversupply. Ukraine’s escalating drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has added a renewed geopolitical risk premium. Successful strikes on the Primorsk oil terminal and the massive Kirishi refinery disrupted operations, delaying exports and forcing Moscow to suspend gasoline exports in order to stabilize domestic supply. These developments injected short-term bullish momentum, as markets priced in tighter regional availability and speculated on possible retaliatory disruptions that could affect European flows.
Yet the broader narrative remains overwhelmingly bearish. The International Energy Agency projects a record surplus of over 3 million barrels per day by 2026, underscoring a long-term supply glut. OPEC+ has already begun unwinding production cuts, adding 137,000 bpd from October, while U.S. output hit a record 13.58 mbpd in June. This wave of supply coincides with faltering demand in key economies like Germany and the UK, where PMI data signals contraction, reinforcing concerns that rallies will be fleeting. Even China, often viewed as the demand floor, has shown signs of slowing imports despite stimulus pledges.
Industry responses highlight the stress of low prices. WTI languishing near $62 has forced producers such as ConocoPhillips and Chevron to announce sweeping layoffs, with capex reductions pointing to future supply risks. Refiners are also trimming margins as crack spreads narrow. Still, the prevailing market psychology is to sell into strength—every geopolitical spike is seen as temporary noise within a bearish structural landscape.
USOIL, H4:
WTI crude is trading near $62.90 after failing to sustain a break above the $63.15 resistance zone. Price action shows that the recovery from the $61.55 support base is losing momentum, with sellers re-emerging near the converging moving averages. A sustained move below $63.15 could open the way for a retest of $61.55, while reclaiming $63.15 would be needed to reestablish upside traction toward $64.90.
Momentum signals remain mixed. The RSI is hovering at 50 reflecting a neutral stance with neither side in control. Meanwhile, the MACD is flat near the zero line, suggesting a lack of conviction after the recent failed breakout. Short-term bias is leaning cautious, with traders awaiting clearer direction.
Overall, crude remains range-bound within a broader consolidation phase, with $61.55 and $63.15 serving as the immediate pivot levels. A decisive break beyond this range is likely to dictate the next directional leg.
Resistance level:63.15, 64.90
Support level: 61.55, 59.95
Step into the world of trading with confidence today. Open a free PU Prime live CFD trading account now to experience real-time market action, or refine your strategies risk-free with our demo account.
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments.
This material has been prepared without considering any individual investment objectives, financial situations. Any references to past performance of a financial instrument, index, or investment product are not indicative of future results.
PU Prime makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this content and accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Trading involves risk, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
APPS
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
