U.S. Jobs Report, Eurozone CPI, and PMIs Set the Tone for September

The Week Ahead: Week of September 1, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

September begins with a data-heavy calendar, featuring a crucial read on U.S. employment alongside inflation updates in Europe and China’s latest PMI figures. After a quiet Monday due to Labor Day holidays in the U.S. and Canada, Tuesday brings Eurozone CPI and U.S. manufacturing surveys that will provide early insight into economic momentum at the start of Q3.

Midweek, JOLTS job openings will help gauge U.S. labor demand, but the highlight arrives Thursday and Friday with the ADP employment report, ISM services PMI, and the all-important nonfarm payrolls report. Together, these will give a comprehensive picture of the labor market and service-sector strength—key inputs for the Fed ahead of its September meeting.

In Europe, inflation data will test the ECB’s easing outlook, while in China, PMI figures will be watched for evidence of stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy. With global growth concerns mounting, the week’s releases could prove decisive for risk sentiment across equities, bonds, and currencies.

Key Events to Watch:

Sunday, August 31 – 04:30
China Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Previous: 49.3 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
China’s factory activity remains under pressure, with the PMI stuck below the 50-mark. A further decline would underscore weak global demand and sluggish domestic recovery, while a rebound could ease concerns of prolonged slowdown. The reading will carry implications for commodity markets and Asian risk sentiment.

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Tuesday, September 2 – 12:00
Eurozone CPI YoY (Aug, Prelim)
Previous: 2.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Eurozone inflation is expected to hold near the ECB’s target, but the underlying trend in services and food will be closely watched. A softer reading would reinforce the case for ECB easing later in 2025, while a hotter print could complicate the path toward rate cuts, providing near-term support for the euro.

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Tuesday, September 2 – 16:45
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug, Final)
Previous: 53.3 | Forecast: 53.3 | Actual: N/A
The final August PMI is expected to confirm modest expansion in U.S. factory activity. Any upward revision would suggest resilience despite weak global demand, while a downgrade could signal renewed softness in production and orders.

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Tuesday, September 2 – 17:00
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Previous: 48.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The ISM survey has been mired in contraction territory, reflecting headwinds from tight financing and slowing demand. A rebound above 50 would hint at stabilization, but another sub-50 reading would highlight ongoing weakness in the industrial sector.

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Tuesday, September 2 – 17:00
US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug)
Previous: 64.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The prices-paid component will offer fresh clues on cost pressures. Persistent elevation would signal sticky inflation in the goods sector, complicating Fed policy bets, while easing prices could reinforce disinflation momentum.

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Wednesday, September 3 – 17:00
US JOLTS Job Openings (Jul)
Previous: 7.437M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Job openings remain elevated but have been trending lower, suggesting gradual cooling in labor demand. A sharper drop would reinforce the narrative of easing labor tightness, while a surprise rebound could challenge expectations of near-term Fed easing.

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Thursday, September 4 – 15:15
US ADP Employment Change (Aug)
Previous: 104K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Private payroll growth slowed sharply in July, raising concerns about hiring momentum. Another weak print would point to further labor cooling, reinforcing expectations of Fed policy easing, while a rebound could support the case for labor resilience.

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Thursday, September 4 – 15:30
US Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly jobless claims remain one of the most timely reads on labor conditions. A pickup would signal rising layoffs and softening demand for workers, while persistently low claims would underline resilience in the job market.

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Thursday, September 4 – 16:45
US S&P Global Services PMI (Aug, Final)
Previous: 55.7 | Forecast: 55.4 | Actual: N/A
Services remain the engine of U.S. growth, but signs of moderation have emerged. Any downward revision would suggest weakening momentum, while stability above 55 would highlight continued expansion in consumer-driven activity.

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Thursday, September 4 – 17:00
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Previous: 50.1 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The ISM services index barely held above 50 in July, signaling near-stagnation. A further slip would raise concerns about broader economic slowdown, while a bounce higher would reassure markets of ongoing service-sector strength.

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Thursday, September 4 – 17:00
US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug)
Previous: 69.9 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The prices-paid component will be critical for inflation watchers. Persistent elevation suggests service-sector inflation remains sticky, while a moderation would ease pressure on the Fed’s inflation fight.

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Friday, September 5 – 15:30
US Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Aug)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Wage growth is a key driver of core inflation. A stronger-than-expected rise would stoke concerns of persistent inflation pressures, while a softer print would align with cooling labor demand and support Fed easing expectations.

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Friday, September 5 – 15:30
US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
Previous: 73K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The August payrolls report will be the centerpiece of the week. July’s sharp slowdown raised red flags about hiring momentum, and another weak print would reinforce concerns about labor cooling. Conversely, a strong rebound would challenge expectations of imminent Fed easing.

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Friday, September 5 – 15:30
US Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Previous: 4.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The jobless rate ticked higher in July, raising questions about labor slack. A further increase would highlight rising weakness in employment conditions, while stability—or a surprise decline could ease recession concerns.

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