CPI, GDP, and Central Bank Minutes Take Center Stage as Markets Weigh Growth Risks

The Week Ahead: Week of August 18, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The third week of August opens with fresh policy guidance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, setting the tone for a week heavy with inflation and growth updates. Midweek attention shifts to the UK and Eurozone CPI releases, where any deviation from forecasts could sway expectations for the BoE and ECB’s next moves. The day also brings the Fed’s July meeting minutes, a potential catalyst for yields and FX markets as traders parse the central bank’s inflation and growth outlook.

In the U.S., Thursday’s data slate features jobless claims, regional manufacturing surveys, and the latest PMIs which are the key barometers of labor market health and industrial activity. Housing market figures will follow, offering fresh insight into demand amid still-elevated mortgage rates.

The week wraps up with Germany’s Q2 GDP reading on Friday, a critical gauge of whether Europe’s largest economy is slipping into contraction. With both growth concerns and inflation risks in play, the upcoming data run will help determine whether policymakers can maintain their current course or if the balance of risks is starting to shift.

Key Events to Watch:

Wednesday, August 20 – 05:00
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
Previous: 3.25% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates steady at 3.25%, as inflationary pressures have moderated but remain above target. The focus will be on Governor Orr’s statement and any adjustments to forward guidance, especially in light of slowing domestic growth and weakening global demand. A dovish tone could weigh on NZD, while a hawkish hold—highlighting inflation persistence—may lend the kiwi short-term support.

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Wednesday, August 20 – 09:00
UK CPI YoY (Jul)
Previous: 3.6% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
UK headline inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.6%, with services prices and wage growth continuing to exert pressure. Any upside surprise would strengthen the case for a prolonged BoE tightening bias, while a softer reading could revive rate cut speculation. Markets will pay close attention to core components for signs of easing price momentum.

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Wednesday, August 20 – 12:00
Eurozone CPI YoY (Jul)
Previous: 2.0% | Forecast:  2.0% | Actual: N/A
Eurozone inflation is expected to hold at the ECB’s 2% target, but underlying dynamics—particularly core services—will shape rate cut expectations for late 2025. A hotter print could challenge the ECB’s easing outlook, especially with growth concerns mounting, while a softer figure would add to the case for earlier policy loosening.

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Wednesday, August 20 – 17:30
US Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: 3.036M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly crude stock data will offer fresh insight into supply-demand dynamics, with implications for both inflation and energy markets. A sharp draw could signal stronger demand or supply tightness, supporting oil prices, while a build might suggest cooling demand—potentially easing some inflationary concerns.

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Wednesday, August 20 – 21:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting will be combed for signals on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts. Investors will watch for any divisions among policymakers on inflation persistence, labor market cooling, and the risks of over-tightening. Any hawkish undertones could push yields higher, while dovish hints might spark a rally in equities and bonds.

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Thursday, August 21 – 15:30
US Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
A timely gauge of labor market conditions, jobless claims will be assessed for signs of a cooling employment backdrop. A rise could reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut rates sooner, while persistently low claims would point to continued labor resilience, potentially delaying easing.

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Thursday, August 21 – 15:30
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
Previous: 15.9 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
This regional manufacturing gauge provides early clues on national factory activity. A strong reading could hint at a rebound in industrial output, while a drop would underscore ongoing sector weakness, adding to broader slowdown concerns.

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Thursday, August 21 – 16:45
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Previous: 49.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The flash manufacturing PMI is expected to hover near the contraction threshold of 50. Any slip further below could confirm softness in production and orders, while an improvement would signal stabilizing conditions in the sector.

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Thursday, August 21 – 16:45
US S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
Previous: 55.7 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Services activity remains a key driver of U.S. growth, and another reading above 50 would reinforce economic resilience. However, a notable decline could suggest that the consumer-driven expansion is losing momentum.

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Thursday, August 21 – 17:00
US Existing Home Sales (Jul)
Previous: 3.93M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Housing market activity remains sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations. A slowdown in sales would reflect affordability challenges and tight inventory, while a rebound could indicate pent-up demand despite high rates.

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Friday, August 22 – 09:00
German GDP QoQ (Q2)
Previous: 0.4% | Forecast: -0.1% | Actual: N/A
Germany’s economy is expected to contract slightly after a stronger Q1. Weak external demand, especially from China, and cautious domestic spending remain headwinds. A sharper contraction would intensify calls for ECB easing, while a surprise upside could temporarily lift the euro.