4 August 2025,01:54
Chart The Market
4 August 2025, 01:54
XAUUSD, H4:
Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm above the $3,330 level, currently trading near $3,346 after breaking out of a falling wedge formation. The metal has reclaimed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downswing, with the breakout zone around $3,306 now acting as a key support. Price action remains constructive following the breakout, with bulls attempting to reclaim the 200-period moving average near $3,360 and establish a higher base for potential continuation toward the $3,392 zone.
Momentum indicators support the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 62, trending upward but still shy of overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside. Meanwhile, the MACD has completed a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning positive and indicating a shift in momentum in favor of buyers.
If gold manages a decisive close above $3,360, the next key resistance lies at $3,392 that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level followed by the psychological $3,400 mark and $3,430. On the downside, initial support rests at the broken wedge resistance near $3,312, with additional levels at $3,271 consolidation base. A drop below these supports would risk invalidating the bullish breakout and open the path for deeper retracement.Overall, the technical outlook for gold is improving, with trend structure turning more constructive and momentum indicators backing further upside. Traders may look for either continuation above the 200-SMA or a pullback toward support for potential long entries.
Resistance Levels: 3392.00, 3430.00
Support Levels: 3346.00, 3306.00
USDJPY, H4
USD/JPY plunged below the 149 handle, currently trading near 147.50 after a sharp rejection from the 151.15 resistance zone. The pair broke decisively beneath multiple support levels, including the 20-SMA, 50-SMA, and 100-SMA, now hovering around 147.60, which is acting as immediate support. The breakdown follows a parabolic rally and signals a possible short-term trend reversal, with the next downside targets seen at 146.90 and 146.10.
Momentum indicators point to further weakness. The RSI has fallen steeply to 37, entering bearish territory and indicating strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD has confirmed a bearish crossover, with both the MACD line and signal line sloping downward and the histogram printing increasingly negative bars.
If bears sustain pressure below the 200-SMA, downside momentum may accelerate toward 146.10 or even 145.50 as a deeper target. On the upside, initial resistance is now stacked at 148.20 and 148.90, followed by the psychological 149.00 level. A move back above these zones would be required to stabilize the pair and reassert a bullish bias.
In the near term, the technical structure has flipped negative, with momentum, price action, and volume favoring further downside unless the pair quickly reclaims key moving averages above 148.00. Traders may look for either breakdown continuation or a failed rebound toward resistance to position accordingly.
Resistance Levels: 147.70, 148.20
Support Levels: 146.90, 146.10
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