9 June 2025,05:47
Daily Market Analysis
9 June 2025, 05:47
Key Takeaways:
*China deflation deepens, with weak CPI and PPI figures underscoring fragile demand and weighing on AUD via trade exposure.
*RBA rate cut odds rise, as soft Q1 GDP and sluggish consumption push markets to price in July easing with 86% probability.
The Australian dollar remains pinned just below the 0.65 handle, weighed down by persistent disinflationary signals from China and a deteriorating domestic growth outlook that’s amplifying calls for monetary easing. China’s CPI fell 0.1% YoY in May—its second straight monthly contraction—while PPI plunged 3.3%, underscoring weak demand and industrial overcapacity. This casts a shadow over commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie, given Australia’s trade dependence on China.
Beijing’s cautious stance was also evident during the resumption of the U.S.–China trade talks in London. While the headlines briefly buoyed risk sentiment, the lack of new stimulus limited follow-through. Markets remain unconvinced that diplomatic progress alone will lift AUD/USD without a clearer rebound in Chinese demand.
Domestically, Australia’s economy continues to sputter. Q1 GDP rose just 0.2% q/q as household consumption stalled, while underwhelming retail sales and PMIs highlight the economy’s lack of internal momentum. With inflation softening, markets now price in an 86% chance of a 25bp RBA rate cut on July 4.
Meanwhile, U.S. jobs data beat expectations, with nonfarm payrolls up 139K and wages rising 3.9% YoY—reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance and keeping Treasury yields firm. The resulting yield differential continues to cap AUD upside.
AUDUSD, H4
AUD/USD continues to hover just beneath the 0.6526 resistance level, with price action pressing against the upper edge of a developing symmetrical triangle. Despite holding above a rising trendline from late May, recent sessions have shown signs of hesitation, with upward momentum stalling near the apex of the coiling structure.
While the broader bullish bias remains intact—supported by higher lows and repeated defenses of the 0.6455 and 0.6410 zones—the failure to push decisively through overhead resistance raises doubts about the sustainability of the move. Price remains firm above 0.6485 for now, but the inability to generate follow-through suggests fading conviction.
Momentum indicators offer a cautiously constructive backdrop. The RSI holds around 61, pointing to moderate bullish strength while staying short of overbought territory. However, the MACD line is only slightly above the signal line, with the histogram flattening—hinting at a loss of thrust that could evolve into a bearish crossover if momentum weakens further.
Resistance levels:0.6526, 0.6570
Support levels: 0.6485, 0.6455
Step into the world of trading with confidence today. Open a free PU Prime live CFD trading account now to experience real-time market action, or refine your strategies risk-free with our demo account.
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments.
This material has been prepared without considering any individual investment objectives, financial situations. Any references to past performance of a financial instrument, index, or investment product are not indicative of future results.
PU Prime makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this content and accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Trading involves risk, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
