Published: 27 November 2025,03:34
Daily Market Analysis New
*NZD/USD strengthened sharply in post-RBNZ, rebounding more than 1% in the Sydney session as markets reassessed the policy message.
*A hawkish twist in the Monetary Policy Statement drove the reversal, with the RBNZ signaling a potential pause in its easing cycle and stressing that further rate cuts will depend on inflation and economic conditions.
*Focus now shifts to tomorrow’s Retail Sales data, which could extend the Kiwi’s recovery if it surprises to the upside, though the currency remains sensitive to global risk appetite and evolving Fed rate expectations.
The New Zealand dollar has emerged as the standout performer in global foreign exchange markets, with NZD/USD rallying 1.4% in the previous session and extending gains in today’s Asian trading. The currency’s sharp appreciation stems from a fundamental repricing of RBNZ policy expectations following yesterday’s monetary policy decision.
While the central bank delivered another expected 25 basis point rate cut, the accompanying Monetary Policy Committee communication signaled a potentially decisive shift. The RBNZ indicated this may conclude the current easing cycle—which has included four consecutive reductions—and emphasized future decisions will be strictly data-dependent. This hawkish pivot from previously dovish expectations has triggered substantial short covering and renewed bullish positioning in the Kiwi.
The bullish momentum received further fundamental support from today’s robust retail sales data, which surged to 1.9%—significantly exceeding both market expectations and the previous 0.7% reading. This strong consumption figure validates the RBNZ’s more balanced policy stance and suggests underlying economic resilience.
With U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday, typically thinner liquidity conditions may amplify currency movements. The New Zealand dollar appears well-positioned to extend its rally in this environment, particularly against a range-bound U.S. dollar.
The EURNZD pair, which has been trading in a well-defined uptrend, is now showing clear signs of a bearish shift. After spending the past three weeks contained within a wide consolidation zone capped by the strong 2.0600 resistance, the pair has decisively broken below the lower boundary of that range. This breakdown was followed by a sharp decline of more than 1% in the last session, marking a meaningful deterioration in market structure.
Notably, price action has also breached the long-term uptrend support line, providing strong confirmation of a trend reversal. Momentum indicators reinforce this bearish outlook: the RSI has slipped toward oversold territory, while the MACD has crossed below the zero line and is widening to the downside. Together, these signals indicate that fresh bearish momentum has taken hold and is now dominating the pair.
Resistance Levels: 2.0420, 2.0600
Support Levels: 2.0244, 2.0060
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