Published: 12 November 2025,03:25
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil rebounds from two-week lows amid bargain buying ahead of OPEC and IEA reports.
*U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and potential end of the government shutdown support near-term oil prices.
*The market remains cautious amid ongoing concerns of global supply glut and rising inventories.
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices rebounded modestly, supported by bargain buying as traders positioned ahead of several key reports due later this week. OPEC is set to release its monthly oil market report on Wednesday, followed by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual energy outlook, which could shape expectations for next year’s supply-demand balance.
Despite the recent uptick, crude oil remains under pressure for the year amid growing concerns of a potential supply glut. OPEC+ members, including Russia, have been gradually restoring production capacity, while non-OPEC producers have also ramped up output. The IEA previously projected a record surplus in 2026, while major banks such as Goldman Sachs have warned of rising global inventories — reinforcing the bearish structural backdrop.
Short-term optimism has emerged following fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and speculation surrounding the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, both of which have improved market sentiment. The sanctions have already begun disrupting Russian fuel exports, as Lukoil declared force majeure at an Iraqi oilfield — marking the most significant operational fallout yet from the restrictions. This tightening of refined product supply has helped offset crude’s oversupply narrative, offering near-term support to prices.
In parallel, Middle Eastern suppliers — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait — are expected to increase shipments to India in December, as Indian refiners seek alternatives to Russian barrels. This reconfiguration of trade flows could further stabilize regional demand dynamics, lending a mild bullish undertone to prices in the short term.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices are trading higher following a rebound from the key support level at $59.90. The MACD shows increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 59 remains above the midline, signaling continued upward bias.
If bullish momentum persists, the commodity could extend gains toward the next resistance levels at $62.80 and $65.20. However, a failure to sustain momentum may trigger a pullback toward $59.90, with deeper support seen near $57.85.
Resistance Levels: $62.80, $65.20
Support Levels: $59.90, $57.85
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